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NFL Divisional Round: Sell High on The Texans

As we dive into another thrilling weekend of playoff action, I’m excited to share my predictions and insights for the upcoming matchups. Last week’s picks were spot on, boasting a perfect 100% record against the spread (ATS). Let’s build on that success and analyze the key factors influencing this weekend’s games.

Saturday 9:30 pm – Texans vs. Ravens

Spread: Ravens -9.0 | Total: 44.0 | Picks: Ravens -9.0 | Odds: 1.91

The Texans face a daunting challenge against the Ravens, especially considering CJ Stroud’s performance on the road this season. While he had a stellar rookie season, facing an elite, rested defense in Baltimore might prove too much for the Texans. The Ravens, with a 7-1 home record in the regular season, are poised to outscore the Texans, leveraging their strong defense.

Prop Bets:

  • CJ Stroud Under 243.5 Passing Yds: Stroud’s road performance suggests a lower passing yards total.
  • L Jackson Anytime TD Scorer: Lamar Jackson is likely to use his feet to make things happen.
  • L Jackson Over 52.5 Rushing Yds: Expect Jackson to contribute significantly on the ground.

Sunday 1:15 am – Packers vs. 49ers

Spread: 49ers -9.5 | Total: 50.5 | Picks: 49ers Over 31 Points | Odds: 1.87

The Packers, led by J Love, put up an impressive performance last week, but they face a formidable 49ers defense at home. The 49ers’ defense, allowing only 19AvgPPG at home during the regular season, is expected to limit the explosiveness of the Packers’ offense. Coming off rest, the 49ers’ offensive lineup, including McCaffrey, Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle, adds to their strength.

Prop Bets:

  • Over 50.5 Total Points: Expect a high-scoring matchup.
  • B. Purdy 250+ Passing Yds: Purdy has a talented offensive lineup that can contribute significantly.
  • Aaron Jones to Score First TD: A repeat of the impactful start against the Cowboys is anticipated.

Sunday 8 pm – Buccaneers vs. Lions

Spread: Lions -6.5 | Total: 48.5 | Picks: Lions -6.5 | Odds: 1.87

Detroit is buzzing after their first playoff win in 32 years, and the Lions aim to secure another victory. Despite their tendency to keep games close, the Lions have a solid ATS record this season, covering the spread in 12 out of 18 games. The Buccaneers, while taking advantage of a weak Eagles team last week, may face a tougher challenge against the Lions.

Sunday 11:30 pm – Chiefs vs. Bills

Spread: Bills -2.5 | Total: 45.5 | Picks: Chiefs +2.5 | Odds: 1.87

The Bills have shown excellence recently, but the Chiefs, with Mahomes in playoff mode, are always a force. Mahomes’ impressive playoff record and the history of close matchups between the two teams suggest a tight game. Prop bets on Josh Allen’s performance and key players like Pacheco, Rice, and Kelce add extra excitement to this matchup.

Prop Bets for Josh Allen:

  • J Allen Over 0.5 Interceptions: Allen’s tendency to throw interceptions adds a layer of unpredictability.
  • J Allen to Score a TD: Allen’s dynamic playstyle makes him a scoring threat.
  • J Allen over 43.5 Rushing Yds: Allen’s mobility could be a factor in reaching this yardage.

Prop Bets for Mahomes:

  • Pacheco Anytime TD: Mahomes often looks to key players like Pacheco in big games.
  • R Rice Anytime TD: Following a standout performance last week, Rice could find the end zone again.
  • T Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions: Kelce’s reliability in crucial moments makes this prop bet enticing.